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Trading SystemJoker Trading System : Futures : prevnext Trend Unknown Potential Ed Seykota

Ed Seykota:

The "aha!" process lies at the heart of price change. For instance, consider the series: OTTFFSSE. What is the next letter? This puzzle creates tension - until you see the first letters of the ordinal numbers - one, two. "Aha!" you say. A lot happens during an "aha." The puzzle dies and the tension dissipates. A societal "aha!" drives price. Read the newspapers and the news magazines during a major move. At first, no one gets why the move is happening. There's a lot of confusion. Part of the move's way up, some people get it. At the end, everybody gets it. The tension is resolved and the move ends."

"The majority always wants to predict when the next business cycle will be. Trend following profits result from the majority's mistaken belief that they can actually predict the future."

Jerry Parker:

"Profitable trading, technical or fundamental, is dependent upon inefficient markets. Efficient markets prevent any type of system from extracting profits from the markets. Technical trading is successful because it rightfully assumes that some important fundamentals cannot be known until the profit opportunity has passed. Fundamental analysis that excluded the possibility of an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 would have been incomplete and possibly unprofitable, or worse. This was the only "fundamental" that was worth knowing, yet was the very one that almost no one could have known. Technical analysis relies upon the idea that smart money will move into a market and give advance warning that a position should be taken.